1) Introduction_ Both many common-Civilisation-Cultural-Trans Himalayan Twin-But difference in social,Political and Forms of Govt
2) GROWTH OF CHINA: Creation on 1-10-1949- Taiwan went away- Great transformation in last 25 years- Pledged to follow independence and Peace- Initially no place in UN- Got it in 1954 Geneva Conference- Initially USSR helped a lot-Soviet syyle of Heavy Industry and Centralised palnned economy- Mao policy of GLP Great Leap Forward-Joined Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty.-Economy Good But Per captia Low
3) Stages- India Second to recognize after Burma -UN Seat- But not reciprocatedii) Tibet India with it- iii) North Korea we supported iv) Bhai Bhai period –Panchasheel v) Asylum to Thalai Lama not liked vi) 1962- Indo china War
4)China-India’s largest neighbour, is passing through a period of rapid economic growth and modernization with the aim of achieving great power status in the shortest time possible. India ’s border with China is almost 3,500 km long. China continues to occupy approx. 38,000 sq. km of Indian territory mainly in the Aksai Chin Area, and claims yet another 90,000 sq km in the Eastern Sector. Further, 5,180 sq. km of territory under Pak occupation in Northern Kashmir was illegally ceded to China by Pakistan in 1963. (Whilst several rounds of Border Talks have been held with China, a number of disputed pockets remain ).
5) POSITIVE After Chou-li-en diplomatic relation
b) Appointment of K.R. Narayanan as Ambassador to Peking 1975.
c) Good relation during Janatha party d) Bilateral cooperation.
e) Vaj Bai Visit in 1978
f) Rajiv Gandhi’s Visit and improved relationship in 1985
g) Now visits of Heads Opening of Nathu La pas
6) Differences a) Over Maps b) Border Movement c) China aggression -NEFA
d) Emergence of boundary dispute. e) Chinese War and Cease Fire
a) Chino pak axis b) Indo Soviet Friendship 1971
c)Bangaladesh Liberalization and China opposition d) Sikkim
Anti-dumping measures--IAS officers Vsit- Arunachal Pradesh part of it
7) Now more relationships-Bilateral Visits and Trilateral with USSR
ii) Tibet iii) sikkim iv) Nathula Valley opened for Trade
v) Defence relations Mutual Trg- With UN Force also-
vi)S and T MOU vii)Budhist Temple at China
viii) Chairs for Indian students in Universities
viii) Opening of Indian BanksSBI-ICICI-PNB
ix) High level Economic and Trade Relations-Joint Economic Group-Joint Study Group-Rapid growth in Exports.Hand to hand- Indo Sino
GENERAL ANALYSIS:China is rapidly modernising its Armed Forces. In its White Paper on National Defence issued recently, China has stressed the vital importance of maintaining international stability and a global strategic balance, as also a legal regime governing international arms control and disarmament, in order to address an international situation that is undergoing profound changes including a serious disequilibrium in the balance of military power especially between the developed and developing countries. As reported by the Chinese Government to the 16th National Party Congress in November 2002, strengthening of national defence is a “strategic task in China’s modernization drive”.
As far as India is concerned, it cannot be ignored that every major Indian city is within reach of Chinese missiles and this capability is being further augmented to include Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles(SLBMs). The asymmetry in terms of nuclear forces is pronouncedly in favour of China and is likely to get further accentuated as China responds to counter the US missile defence programme. China’s close defence relationship with Pakistan takes a particular edge in view of latter’s known belligerence and hostility to India and its acquisition of nuclear assets.
Notwithstanding these concerns, India continues its endeavour to seek a long term and stable relationship with China, based on the principles of Panchsheel, mutual sensitivity to each other’s concerns and equality and is committed to the process of dialogue to resolve all outstanding differences. Some Confidence Building Measures(CBMs) have been initiated and while these are bearing fruit incrementally, the pace of progress has been less than satisfactory. A number of high level visits have taken place in recent years. The President of India visited China in the year 2000. This was followed by Mr. Li Peng’s visit to India in January 2001. These high level visits have improved bilateral relations and understanding of each other’s viewpoint thereby contributing to further reduction in tension.
Important developments marking the progress of India-China relations in 2002-03 included the initiation of direct Delhi-Beijing flights, the first meeting of the India-China dialogue mechanism on counter terrorism, the completion of the process of exchange of maps for clarification of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Middle Sector, the implementation of the MOU (signed during Premier Zhu’s visit) on sharing hydrological data from the upper reaches of the Brahmaputra and accordance of ‘Approved Tourist Destination Status’ to India by China. The Joint Working Group on the Boundary Question met in its 14th session in November 2002. The first informal Foreign Minister level India-China-Russia dialogue took place in September 2002 on the sidelines of the UNGA. Interaction in other agreed dialogue mechanisms also continued. India has, of late, commenced some cooperation with the armed forces of China . Naval Ships of both the countries have been exchanging visits and some of India ’s mid level officers are undergoing courses in Chinese institutions. exchange of high level defence delegations continued.
The indo-china relations have been characterized by a shift in their focus from geo-political & geo-strategic confrontations to geo-economic cooperation.
INDO-CHINA STRATEGIC ISSUES
China and India have been strategic adversaries since the Sino Indian border war of 1962 that cemented India’s alignment with the society union and China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan. Existing strategic divergences include the border dispute sino-pak nuclear &
Missile collaboration, china’s quest for increasing influence in the Indian ocean region; and china’s pursuance of an encirclement strategy” towards India to gain long-term strategic advantage in the region.
At the strategic level it appears that china wishes to maintain stability with Indian reflected by growing economic and trade linkages cooperation in the WTO and collaboration in the ongoing climate change debate. However at the tactical level some recent moves on the part f china have been less than friendly.
The most significant agreement struck during Hu’s visit to India in 2006 was a joint statement to promote cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy. China did not oppose India’s case in NSG for allowing the nations to export nuclear fuel & technology to India. However china still does not recognize India’s status as a nuclear weapons state. It insists that India must abide by UNSC resolution 1172 and give up its nuclear weapons and consequently sign the NPT. India had supported china’s entry into the UN and expects china also to support India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UNSC.
China hopes increased trade and investment ties with India will counter strategic U.S. – India cooperation which Beijing perceives as an attempt to contain chines influence. Other stimulants to tension between India and china in the long run are likely to be pursuit by new Delhi of a full-fledged nuclear capability its more assertive approach to foreign policy particularly in east Asia and the two countries to emerge as competitors for influence in central Asia over region’s oil reserves.
The geo-political and geo-strategic advantages that could accrue from a china-India strategic alliance could be summarized as under:
* Geo-politically a china-India strategic alliance could alter the global balance of power from a unilateral one to a multi-lateral one.
* Geo-strategically a china-India strategic alliance would encompass the major portion of the heartland of Asia besides resting on the waters of the pacific ocean and Indian ocean.
* Geo-strategically such on alliance would be a formidable one in military terms.
* A china-India strategic alliance could make a Russia-India-china strategic triangle a viable proposition. Presently this triangle is unworkable because of differences in the china-India relations.
* Geo-economically it would integrate the world’s two fastest growing economies.
Factors contributing to this deficit of trust both past & current are as under:
* China’s aggressive foreign policies and its propensity to use military force in boundary disputes.
* China’s policy of asserting strategic frontiers as opposed to national boundaries.
* China’s swing strategy in foreign policies & its strident opposition to India’s nuclear weapons tests.
* China – India clash of interests in south Asia.
* China is holding back its support for India’s candidature as a UNSC permanent membership.
China’s demonstrated record in this respect appears to be focused on endangering or impairing on India’s national security interests in south Asia by the following actions:
* Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile arsenal was built up by direct Chinese assistance.
* China’s defence cooperation agreements with Pakistan and Bangladesh solely aimed at India. As a result both the countries get encouraged to have inimical attitudes towards India.
* China’s strategic encirclement of India by creation of military client states on all peripheries.
* China’s support of Pakistan’s stand on Kashmir till recently.
India’s record on the other hand in terms of respecting china’s strategic sensitivities is glaringly more positive as the following would indicate:
* India has supported the Chinese policy of one china principle.
* India respected china’s stand on Tibet issue & never supported anti-china activities by Tibetan exiles.
* India has not unlike china supported any insurgent activities against china.
* India has not made any efforts towards strategic encirclement of china. India has asserted that its growing relationship with USA precludes being part of any china containment policies of USA.
China has viewed with some suspicion India’s willingness to join Australia Japan and the US in a quadrilateral engagement to promote shared common interests. China also wishes to reduce what it perceives as the steadily increasing influence of the US over New Delhi.
Historically china has been Pakistan’s strategic and military ally for the past 50 years. China has two purposes behind its assistance to Pakistan. First it takes Pakistan as a secure friend and ally in the Indian Ocean and second they share a common interest to contain India. Pakistan supports china’s candidature for china’ sentry into SAARC India is against the prospect of Chinese membership. New Delhi views Beijing’s links with Islamabad as being part of a wider strategy aimed at keeping it off balance strategically. China’s military aid has considerably strengthened Pakistan’s war waging potential ad enabled it to launch and sustain a proxy war in J&K and another parts of India.
China signed a free trade agreement with Pakistan and a deal to co produce Chinese fighter jets. China is providing additional nuclear power reactors to Islamabad. Besides this shaksgam valley was illegally ceded by Pakistan to china in 1963. karakoram highway was built close to this tract by china. China gave the designs for a nuclear bomb to Pakistan in 1984 and then helped them build it. China has given nuclear warhead designs and missile technology as well as fully assembled m-9 and m-11 missiles to Pakistan. China and Pakistan are also known to have a joint weapons and equipment development programme that includes Al khalid tanks and FC-1/JF-17 fighter aircraft. They also helped in the construction of the Gwadar port. Recently proposed china-Pakistan nuclear deal could spell trouble for India’s own membership of the nuclear suppliers group.
However cracks have begun to appear in previsouly monolithic sino Pakistani relations that result party from the improved climate in sino-indian relations. The watershed was the visit by Chinese president jiang zemin to new delhi in 1996 when he made it clear. That Beijing does not take sides on the issue of kashimir. Nor did china take the side of its ally during the kargil crisis.
Expulsion of a number of Pakistani students from the international Islamic university of Xinjiang reinforces these repulsions. There are evidence of groups like the lashkar-e-taiba and the hizb-ul mujahideen training and supporting the separatist uighur movement posing a threat in china too bringing it closer to India on these cancers. The two countries share similar concerns about the rise of the Taliban. They worry that its emergence as the dominant power in Afghanistan fuels the flames of their own separatist movements in Kashmir and xinjiang because of the Pakistani-Taliban link.
In the new millennium the triangular relationship between India Pakistan, and china will remain an important driver of regional security. However the inter-relationship between the three nations will be far more fluid that it was in the past. China and India are more or less satisfied with the current arrangement. Pakistan however, is not satisfied with the current arrangement.
China’s influence in south Asia has significantly growing over the years and in particular Bangladeshi-Chinese relations are now robust and very comprehensive. This is in contrast to bengladeshi-indian relations which are extremely uneven dictated by the political scenario of the country as to which political party is in power. China has signed a defence cooperation agreement with Bangladesh to modernize the latter’s military. It is also seeking to modernize chittagong port. Bangladesh is also supporting china’s candidature for SAARC. But India is against the prospect of Chinese membership. Closer Sino Indian relations can be foundation stone for development of India-china-Bangladesh triangle.
In view of the long-standing political disputes and border confrontations between India and china Bhutan has long been part of India’s strategic defense plan. When the Chinese communists took over Tibet in 1951 Bhutan braced itself against a renewed external threat with a modernization program and a new defense posture. China’s disregard of McMahon line constituted a potential threat to Bhutan’s security too. Bhutan had already protested to the Chinese government through India.
In his first visit to Bhutan in 1958 pt. Nehru reiterated India’s wish that Bhutan remain an independent country. He declared in the Indian parliament in November 1959 that any aggression against Bhutan would be regarded as an aggression against India. A de-facto alliance developed between Bhutan and India by 1960. In times to crisis between India & china or between Bhutan & china, India was quick to assure Bhutan of military assistance.
The boundary question has yet to be settled between Bhutan and china.. as for India a stable democratizing friendly and confident Bhutan is the best security asset tin the turbulent Himalayas. Bhutan is the only country in south Asia that does not have diplomatic relations with china. India denies that it is preventing Bhutan from having regular state-to-state relations with china.
INDIA-CHINA-MYANMAR TRIANGLE Myanmar is viewed as a critical area of interest to china and India. While china has developed close political military & economic relations with Myanmar India is following suite. India dominates Myanmar’s western borders just as china dominates north-eastern. As a littoral of the Indian ocean with a long coastline on eastern arch of the bay of Bengal Myanmar’s strategic value further increases. Myanmar provides china the shortest land and sea access to suth asia just as it provides convenient external land & sea communication options to India’s landlocked northeastern states. Myanmar’s ocean boundaries are barely 30 km from the Andaman islands increasing its maritime security threat.
Most of Myanmar’s mountain ranges and major river systems run northern-south. This facilitates easier movement from the Chinese border and makes construction of road and movement from India’s east to Myanmar difficult. The Chinese have used this favorable terrain configuration to build road from the Chinese border to Mandalay in the heart of Myanmar and onward to the coast. China’s strategic objective appears to be to gain direct access to bay of Bengal and Andaman sea through Myanmar bypassing the narrow strait of Malacca.
India’s northeastern states bordering Myanmar are not as well developed as yunnan province of china bordering Myanmar in the northeast. China has found it useful to link the development of yunnan region jointly with Myanmar and Laos. Thus the two-way border trade and commerce is qualitatively and quantitatively better with china than with India. The Chinese have used the geophysical advantage they enjoy to gain access to Myanmar’s mineral and natural gas resources.
India is slowly becoming a regular supplier of arms to Myanmar joining the ranks of china Russia and Ukraine. China has stepped its influence through economic military and development assistance. Till recently almost 80% of Myanmar’s defence equipment was of Chinese origins. It also has established for electronic listening posts in Myanmar to monitor Indian and Thai communication traffic. China has proved time and again itself as a valuable ally internationally whenever efforts were made in the UN security council to discuss Myanmar. In fact china is perhaps the single most important power with influence over the military regime.
Nepal location as a buffer state between India & china too has increased its importance. The annexation of Tibet by china further increased this importance. India’s role of a better ally makes Nepal at times to be friendly with china. Knowing fully well India’s pre-eminent position in the south Asian region, Nepal has tried to assert its independent and identity. India on the other hand keeping in view its own security to give more aid and pursue a policy of friendship.
Maoists claimed he US was encircling china through India and suggested that Nepal should adopt a policy of equal-distance with new Delhi and Beijing taking into consideration the geopolitical situation. Nepal made use of the Sino Indian differences and followed a policy of distancing from India to gain more aids and benefits from the global and regional powers.
Yevgeny primakov of Russia was the first person to talk about a strategic triangle involving Russia, china & India. China & Russia are co-operating on establishing railway links and on the issue concerning the oil pipeline through central Asia, connecting the Caspian Sea with the middle east and Europe. Russia has also shown keen interest in the pipeline issue involving India.
Already china and Russia have resolved their age-old border disputes amicably. Sino-Russian trade is quite robust and is increasing steadily. With the historic India-Russia ties based on solid foundation the emergence of warmer ties with china means a loot for this region. Russia’s inability to impede the eastward expansion of NATO and its frustration with NATO’s unilateral military action in Kosovo has forced it to seek closer strategic understanding with china and India. Russia is an all weather friend of India and a close ally. Russia-India-china triangle can be the building block for tilting the power balance towards Asia. However the possibility of the triangle is contingent upon the relations between India and china.
INDIA-CHINA-SRI LANKA TRIANGLE
China is supporting Colombo and in the process authenticating India’s fear about Beijing extending its influence in the Indian ocean. The Chinese are courting sri lanka because of its location in the Indian ocean a crucial international passageway for trade and oil. China is selling huge quantities of arms to Colombo and boosting aid almost 5 times to $1 billion. In fact, china is now the largest donor to lanka. Its jian-7 fighter jets anti-aircraft guns and JY-11 3D air surveillance radars played a key role in the sri lankan military successes. Beijing has also roped in its ally Pakistan for providing military assistance to lanka.
China is currently building a billion-dollar port in the country’s southeast hambantota, and this is the latest pearl in china’s strategy to control vital sea-lanes of communication between the Indian and pacific oceans by assembling a string of pearls in the form of listening posts special naval arrangements and access to ports. China is also aiding sri lanks in several other projects like the katunayake expressway extension of the railway line from matara to kataragama, the norochcholai coal power project and building the centre for the performing arts in Colombo. India’s stand against sri lanka on tamilians issue on international forums has been the contentious issue between India and sri lanka and pushing sri lanka towards china and Pakistan. Adopting pragmatic approach towards sri lanka is necessary for making viable India-china-sri lanka triangle.
The deep suspicions between USA & china have allowed India to occupy advantageous middle position in the china-India-US-triangle. China has long viewed the Washington-new Delhi relationship with some degree of suspicion particularly during the years of the bush administration when relations between India and the U.S. deepened and with the U.S. widely being seen as supporting India as a counterweight to china. China’s opposition to the indo-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement underscored its unease at the deepening ties between Washington and New Delhi. China’s rhetoric towards India’s relations with the U.S. has however somewhat cooled following president barrack obama’s election and Washington’s renewed engagement with Beijing.
During obama’s visit to Beijing in 2009 the two countries pledged in a joint statement to work together to promote peace and stability in south Asia a reference which angered some Indian officials seen as a sign of the U.S. encouraging china o play a greater role n south Asia. Latest dissonance in the china-US ties over the American arms sales to Taiwan and the status of Dalai lama is viewed seriously in southeast Asia. The proceedings of the USA-India strategic dialogue held in Washington in 2010 were closely followed in Beijing. However Indian and china have shown unity in many global issues including climate & WTO which U.S. blames what it sees as intransigence on the part of India and china.
STAND OF INDIA AND CHINA ON GLOBAL ISSUES
TERRORISM: the first India-china joint anti-terror military exercise (Hand-in-hand, 2007”) held at kunming in he yunnan province of china. In an apparent reference to Pakistan-based terror outfit jamaat-ud Dawa blamed for Mumbai attacks India, Russia and china pressed for strict observance of sanctions imposed by the UNSC against persons & entities by the countries concerned. India & china decided to work collectively to tackle terrorism.
UN REFORMS: 3 permanent members of the UNSC-Britain Russia and France have supported India’s bid for the coveted permanent seat in an expanded UN security council. The US has supported Japan’s claim but has yet to come out unambiguously in support of India’s candidacy. China has expressed support for India’s bigger role on the international stage but has kept its options open.
CLIMATE CHANGE: climate change has become a facet of china-India cooperation. Both have agreed to coordinate their positions before every major international gathering on climate change. China assured India that china shall not strike any deal with USA that could undermine India’s negotiating position at climate talks. Both have taken a united stand at he Copenhagen climate conference. Both reiterated their opposition to US demands for the framework established in the Kyoto protocol to be scrapped and favored kyoto’s recognition that industrialized and developing nations should be treated differently.
ENERGY: a very important dimension of the evolving Sino Indian relationship is based on the energy requirements of their industrial expansion and their readiness to proactively secure them by investing in the oilfields abroad – in Africa, the middle east and central Asia. Though these ventures entail competition but a degree of cooperation too is visible as they are increasingly confronting bigger players in the global oil market. This cooperation was sealed in Beijing in 2006 during the visit of Indian petroleum & natural gas minister who signed an agreement which envisages ONGC videsh Ltd (OVL) and the china national petroleum corporation (CNPC) placing joint bids for promising projects elsewhere.
Broadly speaking Indian china ties at government levels remain stable at this juncture. New Delhi and Beijing have established a strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity and signed a document on shared vision for the 21st century signifying that the Sino Indian ties have gone beyond the bilateral context and acquired a global character. The two sides now aim at building a relationship of friendship and trust based on equality in which each is sensitive to the concerns and aspirations of the other.